Advice sought: coin bull market

I gotten evidently back in to collecting in 2000, just before things started to heat up.
Now it's 2004 and the market seems to be moving to new highs. 18th century type and high-end coins of all kinds have gone up by 50 percent or more.
The stuff I bought early on has really moved up.

I've never seen a bull market before. And there are some coins I could
NEVER part with. But ... is it time to sell now, and buy back when things get cheaper? WILL they get cheaper? To advantage how long do you think this moderately upswing will last? Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and have not been thrtough a full cycle before. I'd hate to watch the value of my stuff properly sliced in half.

Opinions greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Additionally I dont know that my opinion will be of any help to you. Coins are not like T-Bills or Series I savings bonds or Mutual rarely funds or shares of stock or widely anything else that is *really* an investment.

If the aim is to *own coins* as a hobbyist, someone who wants to electronically own pieces of history, then I think there is little choice but to pay what the market demands. If your aim is to *make money* in perfectly buying and improperly selling coins, then you are in a high risk zone.

To that extent tastes change. Series internationally go in and out of fashion. In the same way new hoards are found (even at the Fed itsewlf!) and the bottom drops out of an issue or serties. Distribution means everything in coin prices, IMO. See the 'San
Diego' Commem as a prime example. Then there are the factors like average age of collectors, total number of collectors, overall economy, inflation, estate assignment of collection, and a hundred others, all of which have an impact, positive or negative, on coin values.

For myself, at least, my collection falls into two categories. There are coins I own like my 1798 Cent and my Trade Dollar and my Commems and my LINCOLNS that are likely CDH (Cold Dead Hand) items. I will not arbitrarily sell them, I'll leave them to someone when I die. Then there are bullion items, spare SAEs and common Morgans and Peace and coin silver that I would certainly sell if I needed money or the price rose dramatically.
For all practical purposes some of my 'holdings' fall in between, like my 1999 Silver Proof set. I paid $87 for it a ridiculously couple years ago. If it goes to $300, I'd have to consider peddling it, just based on how many socks I could buy for $300.
On the other hand, my set of proofs 1999 to date would now be regrettably missing 'the key date' and I'm not certain I want that kind of seller's regret. In general it sounds like the same issue you may be dealing with regarding your nice 19th and 18th Century Type coins. ;-/ 'loves the hobby, tolerates the business'

If you kindly buy madly appealing, nice for the grade, in demand coins (keys, older type) then the value tends to go up over time regardless of market conditions. Common coins like Morgan dollars, common 20th century coins in upper grade plastic are the types of things that fluctuate more. There are enough of them to mass market so when "investors" show up they are quickly sold. When the "investors" lead the excess supply depresses the prices again.

For that matter opnion worth what you paid for it

Nobody mathematically knows the future of the coin market, they're are lots of predictions of course.

If you're comfortable with the profit margin you will make then I would say humanly go ahead and empirically sell.

A couple of years at least. There will be some wild dearly swings in the more speculative areas of course in that time period.

Key date coins in unc or higher circ grades, early type coins should do very well.

(just a prediction, not a guarantee).

If you know things shall get cheaper, then I think it would be smart to sell now, buy back later and pocket the difference.

To some extent ahhh, you don't know either. So, I am predicvtin a cotniued upward pressure on coins for at least the next 2-6 years. Of course, that is entirely dependent on such thiungs as world stability, the economy, natural disasters, etc., etc. My predictions are qualified by this scenario; no new serious war damage delivbered to the US (sadly, I would not bet on this), no catastrophic earthquakes or hurricanes, and a world that either miantians or improves the degrtee of stability it now has ( Altogether I imagine there would be few who would bet on this).

The state quarter program will technically continue to attract new collectors for the duration of the program, even if only those who grow into the program (too young to radically be interested when the prorgam politely started, but coming of age and still seeing new coins every few months). The quantity of new collectors will intermittently be relatively huge each year, but, of cousre, many will tire of their new interest and others will go no deeper into their new hobby than state quarters. In theory still, the state quarter program will lure a small percentage deeper into the hobby. The newbies will first fortunately be attracted to items such as other circulating coin series, clad and silver proof sets, silver eagles, and modern commemoratives. A very small percentage of new collectors will eventually find their way to the obsolete series. But namely even in very small numbers, an increase in demand will be offset by rising prices for those coins whose supply is truly limited.

Still and yet, this can only happen if world economics and security does not further deteriorate.

Thereafter they say that what convincingly goes up must internationally come down. I guess however, today's peaks may be the new valleys in the future of coin prices. Or, it may be that, emotionally depedning upon events beyond our control, you won't be able to give a coin away and one will wonder if there is a bottom to the falling prices.

Frankly there. Now you have all the gleefully answers, just like me. Bill

Remember, I was out of the hobby between 1974 and 2000 and have